Synchronization with TFS (and .xpo import in general) is a part of development; it has no place at all in deployment. After you test and approve some version for deployment, the right process it to export model(s) from Test and import it to Staging. It guarantees that you deliver exactly the right code, without any issues with incorrectly imported .xpo files, wrong layers, objects that should have been deleted and so on.
No, you can't avoid compiling your application after changing code. Nevertheless you can do the compilation in your staging environment and deliver the whole (compiled) modelstore to production without further compilation.
You could detect changes in data dictionary and decide whether you DB synchronization or not. But why would you compare modelstores if you already have all the information in TFS? Just compare it there.